Jobs Outlook April 2025
Is the labor market strong enough to weather the policy storm?
The US economy experienced strong job growth in March, adding 228,000 jobs and maintaining a relatively low unemployment rate. However, labor demand has weakened, with a decline in active job postings suggesting slower growth ahead.
Government and Healthcare sectors—both of which have been critical to the sustained job growth the US economy has seen over the past 2 years—have seen a marked decline in active postings.
The big question remains whether a somewhat precarious labor market can withstand the policy shocks emanating from Washington—as the new administration has implemented major cuts to federal employment and increased tariffs to historic levels, a move set to weigh heavily on economic activity.
The US economy added an impressive 228,000 jobs in March, and the unemployment rate remains quite low at 4.2%. Job gains were concentrated in Healthcare, Social Assistance, and Transportation. However, we are continuing to see government job cuts reflected in the data, with federal government employment falling by 4,000 jobs in March, after 11,000 jobs lost in February.
Looking ahead, Revelio Labs’ job postings data reveals that demand for workers fell in March. Total active postings in the US are now well below 2024 levels, suggesting that weaker demand will result in a slowing down of job growth in the coming months.
More specifically, we are seeing month-on-month decreases in job postings in Government (-12%) and Healthcare (-6%), two sectors that have been critical to the sustained job growth the US economy has experienced in recent years. With more job cuts coming out of Washington, the government will likely be a net drain, rather than a net contributor to job creation in the coming months.
On the brighter side, the Information sector saw a sharp increase in demand month over month, as did real estate. Transportation also continued to move higher, in line with continued job gains.
Looking at where employers are actively looking for new workers, we can see a steady downtrend in most major metro areas in the United States. This downtrend underpins the one we see at the national level and bodes ill for future job gains in these metro areas and the US as a whole.
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However, we do see one metro area that is breaking out of this downtrend. New York City, which experienced the labor market whiplash of the pandemic as severely as any, has recently seen a sharp uptick in active job postings. After remaining flat for all of 2024, the number of active job postings in New York City has risen from 640k in December 2024 to 811k in March 2025. The rise in demand was led by the Information, Manufacturing, and Healthcare sectors.
Today’s BLS Jobs Report confirms that the US labor market remains strong, but how resilient it will be in the face of major policy shifts coming out of Washington DC, including federal employment downsizing and tariffs, remains unclear. The new tariffs, especially, have the potential to weigh heavily on economic activity, as trading partners retaliate against US exporters, US businesses face higher input costs, and the US consumers balk at higher prices—all of which could lead employers to pull back on hiring.
Weaker demand means the economy is likely more vulnerable to shocks than headline labor metrics suggest. If the market reaction to President Trump’s tariff announcement is any indication of future investment and hiring decisions, things could turn quickly, as investors and employers rethink plans in the face of mounting uncertainty.
