Jobs Outlook December 2024

• Following last month's disappointing numbers, the US economy bounced back and added 227,000 jobs in November. The strong report reflects a resilient economy, but it was also buoyed by the dissipating effects of hurricanes and strikes in October.

• Looking ahead, waning job postings activity shows a broad slowdown in demand for workers and likely indicates that job growth will cool even further as we move into 2025. Only one sector—transportation—saw an increase in active job postings in November.

• Revelio Labs’ COSMOS job postings data also shows that the largest declines in job availability can be found among low- and upper-middle-income jobs, making things especially difficult for those looking to enter the workforce or move up to higher-paying positions.

Another solid jobs report for November reflects a still strong U.S. economy, where the vast majority of Americans who want a job have a job. The U.S. economy added another 227,000 last month, bouncing back from a disappointing October that was negatively impacted by two hurricanes and major strikes. Unemployment ticked slightly higher this month but remains historically low at 4.2%.

However, the jobs report and the labor market it's meant to capture may not be as good as they seem at first glance. That big headline growth figure was likely inflated by the impact of the one-off events that weighed on October’s figure. Gains are also concentrated in just a few industries, with jobs in leisure and hospitality—a sector that was hit by the hurricanes—showing strong gains this month. Healthcare, social services, and government were the other sectors that saw big gains this month.

Looking ahead, Revelio Labs’ COSMOS job postings data shows a marked decline in job availability. After stabilizing for much of 2024, active job postings fell sharply in November, potentially re-establishing a downtrend that has been in place since 2022. Active job postings have declined as demand for workers cools amid higher interest rates and rising economic uncertainty. Fewer postings will likely mean fewer hires and slower job growth ahead.

The decline in active job postings was broad-based across sectors of the economy, with Information, Management & Admin Services, and Government postings declining the most. The government has been a key player in supporting job growth this year, but postings for many federal agencies are now on hold as we await an incoming administration that has promised to cut back. Meanwhile, tech and other white-collar industries have also pulled back on hiring. Transportation was the only industry to increase active postings last month, with active postings rising 28% from October to November.

Looking at the larger trend, the decline in job availability that we’ve seen over the past two years is not evenly spread across the economy. Revelio Labs’ data shows the lowest paying jobs, those with salaries below $30,000, have dried up the most, with active postings for these jobs declining over 50% from their peak in September 2022. As we discussed in our newsletter last month, entry-level jobs are becoming increasingly difficult to come by, making times especially tough for job seekers at the bottom of the corporate ladder.

Similarly, workers looking to move from middle-income to upper-middle-income jobs may be finding it increasingly difficult to make the jump. Active job postings for roles paying between $80,000 and $125,000 have also nearly halved, declining 47.7% from their peak levels in 2022.

As we move toward 2025, the health of the US labor market remains highly uncertain. November was another strong showing for jobs growth, but the headline figure was clouded by one-off events. The BLS data also showed higher unemployment and weaker labor force participation. Meanwhile, wage growth is ticking higher, which may give policymakers at the Federal Reserve reason to pause as they contemplate additional rate cuts.

Revelio Labs data raises additional concerns, as a sharp drop in active job postings reflects weaker demand for workers. While unemployment remains low, the outlook for job seekers is growing increasingly bleak, especially for entry-level positions and low- and middle-upper-income roles.